The modern era is characterized by high rates of science-based innovations that have been applied and provide the foundation for day-to-day living. We take mobile transportation and electricity for granted, but they are recent innovations from a historical perspective that combine new knowledge with ingenuity and creativity and change how we live. Global life expectancy has increased dramatically, doubling from around 32 years to over 70 years in 2021. This results from hygiene, vaccines, and multiple medical discoveries that led to lifestyle changes and expanded our lifespan. Innovations contributing to an increase in agricultural productivity led to a global transformation that has seen the population grow five-fold between 1900 and 2020, with a 53% increase in agricultural output per capita and a significant reduction in food prices. Agricultural production shifted from heavy reliance on land and labor to dependence on machinery, better seeds, and chemicals.[1]
These achievements were associated with significant adverse side effects, including contamination of air and water resources and loss of wildlife[2]. Humanity faces the challenge of containing and mitigating climate change, eliminating negative externalities, increasing agricultural production by 70% by 2050, reducing poverty, and improving human well-being. Here, we suggest developing “Smart” strategies to increase productivity while reducing resource load and eliminating environmental side effects. These strategies will take advantage of the capabilities of modern science and the development of enlightened policies and institutions.
Introducing new technologies is a complex effort that may start with a scientific discovery (or other insight) that will be developed further, taking advantage of scientific capability and ingenuities and upscaling to yield a commercialized innovation[3]. These innovations are then commercialized by supply chains, whose development requires significant investment. The innovation and product development processes are very costly and are subject to considerable uncertainty. Much of the uncertainty relates to the side effects of the technology, and the role of government is to develop regulatory processes to eliminate technologies that pose risks to human life and the environment. The design of these regulations is a significant challenge. One approach is precautionary, ensuring that only safe technologies are introduced. Through experimentation, simulations, and other analyses, all the possible adverse side effects, known and unknown, are eliminated. This approach has much appeal. Why add new risks? But aiming to eliminate all potential risks is costly and risky. Of course, it is essential to ensure that new technologies pose minimal risk to users and the environment, undergoing rigorous testing and safety checks before being widely adopted. We need to develop a regulatory process that weighs the risk vs. the benefit of the innovations and introduces new technologies that allow us to meet global challenges. In essence, avoiding risk is very risky; thus, we must take some calculated risk to increase our safety. In particular, we have to allow technologies to be developed subject to some degree of acceptable risk. Furthermore, once technologies are introduced, the performance should be followed to identify unexpected negative consequences that may lead to banning or, more likely, to improvement. This adaptive learning process will allow us to develop new technologies that will be beneficial, affordable, and safe.
The importance of smart regulation that allows taking minimal risks to pursue progress and meet our challenges is especially important as we introduce the bioeconomy, which will expand the utilization of natural resources to meet our food needs to sequester carbon and produce minerals, fuels, and other materials in a renewable manner. The bioeconomy development requires modern biotechnologies, including genetic engineering, gene editing, and other technologies that modern biological research will yield. Unfortunately, the use of transgenic varieties is limited to mostly corn, soybean, and cotton. It is not allowed in Europe and many other African countries. Even under this limited use, these technologies increase yield, reduce pesticide use, reduce greenhouse gases, and make food more affordable globally[4]. Multiple uses of gene editing in crop and livestock production are banned, even though they have no greater risk than existing practices. When they are allowed, the regulatory processes of these modern technologies are costly and slow. These barriers are not science-based; they are policy-based. The vaccine development during the pandemic demonstrates the power of contemporary biotechnology when some unnecessary constraints are eliminated or reduced.
Innovations and technological development are economic activities. Costly and uncertain regulation tends to reduce investment in research and may disincentivize scientists to pursue new promising avenues that result in technologies likely to face a heavy regulatory burden. The development of the bioeconomy depends on the ability to utilize modern biological tools, and we need regulatory reform that would allow the use of modern capabilities efficiently and safely.
[1] https://www.ers.usda.gov/amber-waves/2024/september/global-changes-in-agricultural-production-productivity-and-resource-use-over-six-decades/
[2] https://www.ipcc.ch/srccl/chapter/chapter-5/
[3] Zilberman, David, Thomas Reardon, Jed Silver, Liang Lu, and Amir Heiman. “From the laboratory to the consumer: Innovation, supply chain, and adoption with applications to natural resources.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 119, no. 23 (2022): e2115880119.
[4] Barrows, Geoffrey, Steven Sexton, and David Zilberman. “Agricultural biotechnology: the promise and prospects of genetically modified crops.” Journal of economic perspectives28, no. 1 (2014): 99-120.